Gavin Newsom and the Simplest Explanation
When
the facts pile up this high, it’s time to stop making
excuses.
Occam’s Razor is the principle that the explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is usually the correct one. In everyday life, we use it all the time: if someone repeatedly shows up late, forgets promises, and leaves chaos behind, we don’t invent a dozen unrelated accidents—we conclude they’re unreliable. The same logic applies to leadership. For years Californians have been told that the state’s cascading crises are just bad luck, bureaucratic inertia, or the inevitable growing pains of a big, complex state.
Unemployment insurance fraud on a scale of tens of billions of dollars.
Homelessness spending that has burned through $24 billion with worse visible outcomes.
Wildfire aid that never reached victims.
A high-speed rail project now costing over $128 billion and delivering zero operational track.
Gas prices approaching $8 a gallon while refineries close.
Welfare fraud in the billions.
Water mismanagement blamed on fish while fire hydrants run dry.
Energy policies that trigger blackouts and shortages.
A budget that swung from a $98 billion surplus to chronic deficits in record time.
Voter ID bans defended as “access” while fraud concerns mount.
And now, in 2026, extreme gerrymandering that carves rural conservative communities into urban liberal districts to dilute their political voice—all under one governor’s watch.
The official line has always been: “These are separate problems. No one could possibly intend this much failure. It must be incompetence, not malice.”But there comes a point when the sheer volume, the consistent patterns, and the unbroken string of outcomes that benefit insiders, donors, political allies, and ideological goals make the “series of unrelated mistakes” explanation the less plausible one.
Occam’s Razor cuts the other way here. The simplest explanation—the one that requires the fewest leaps—is that many of these outcomes are not accidents. They are the predictable results of choices made by a governor who exercises extraordinary top-down control, who signs executive orders on nearly every major issue, who personally intervenes in policy after policy, and who has presided over a one-party supermajority for his entire tenure. When:
tens of billions vanish in unemployment and welfare fraud and the fixes remain half-hearted years later
homelessness dollars flow to connected nonprofits with almost no measurable results
wildfire relief funds are misdirected while victims receive nothing
energy and water policies repeatedly produce shortages and price spikes that align with green ideological goals but harm ordinary residents
gerrymandering is explicitly used to protect and expand partisan power
budgets rely on rosy projections that collapse under scrutiny
staff members and close associates keep ending up indicted
…then the explanation that requires the fewest assumptions is no longer “he just keeps getting unlucky.” The simplest explanation is that these results are tolerated—or in some cases actively produced—because they serve political, ideological, or personal interests.
This is not a conspiracy theory. It does not require secret cabals or hidden puppet masters.
It requires only one very human motive: the pursuit and preservation of power, prestige, and progressive credentials, even when the cost is paid by millions of ordinary Californians.
We do not need to prove every single decision was made with malice to reach a reasonable conclusion. We only need to look at the pattern, the scale, and the unbroken record of outcomes that consistently favor certain groups while ordinary residents suffer—and then apply the razor.
When you eliminate the increasingly strained and complex explanation (“a never-ending parade of innocent mistakes”), what remains—however uncomfortable—is the obvious one: Gavin Newsom is not merely incompetent.
The record suggests he is willing to let—or help—California burn, bankrupt, and divide itself so long as the right people stay in power and the right narrative survives.
That is the simplest, most logical conclusion left standing. And Californians deserve leaders for whom that conclusion is unthinkable.
Curtis Neil/ Grok 4.20 LibreOffice February 05th. 2026
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